Hit or miss? How prediction markets can accurately predict FMCG product success.

Launching a new product in the market is risky business. Will consumers love it? Is it better than what’s already out there? Traditional surveys have always dominated FMCG concept testing, but their predictive power has limits — what people say they’ll do, and what they actually do, are often different.                                                                                                                                                   

With almost half of new product launches failing, relying on stated attitude surveys to find out if a product will perform well isn’t good enough. What if you had a tool that helps you focus resources on the concepts with the greatest chance of success?

Prediction markets are the key to identifying potential product winners and losers at an early stage and throughout the development process. The behavioural-science approach takes the uncertainty and guesswork out of the equation, replacing it with highly accurate and reliable behavioural insights.

What are prediction markets and how do they work?

Prediction markets draw on the “wisdom of the crowds” theory, using a gamified survey where respondents place virtual bets on how well they think a product will perform in the real world. Responses are given real-world context to help them answer more consistently, taking personal opinion out of the picture.

Prediction markets don’t entirely replace traditional concept test questions. Instead, personal appeal and personal likelihood to buy work alongside it to find the concepts or ideas that sink or swim. Prediction market data can be used to develop your own benchmarks or measure against our in-house benchmarking.

What are the benefits of prediction markets?

• Proven to be more accurate

Independent and academic research proves that prediction markets are more accurate and valid over a longer period than conventional survey research. Our own research has also proven this — with a 79-92% success rate compared to 45-55% using standard concept testing.

• A more reliable way to predict outcomes

The say-do gap is a fundamental flaw of traditional market research, as it doesn’t reflect the complex reality of the decision-making process. Prediction markets close that say-do gap by asking people what they think other people will do, rather than what they will do.

• Accelerate failure to save resources

Prediction markets can be used across the innovation pipeline, from early-stage, fledgling ideas to fleshed-out concepts. You can quickly and confidently discard ideas and concepts likely to fail, so you can focus time and resources on those more likely to succeed.

Introducing CrowdPredict by Trinity McQueen

CrowdPredict is Trinity McQueen’s unique prediction markets approach, proven to successfully predict hits and misses in the FMCG market. Our gamified survey helps clients test product concepts in a way that’s more accurate, insightful, and backed by behavioural science.

Ready to focus on the concepts with real-world potential? Get in touch to discuss how our exciting prediction market approach, CrowdPredict, can help you go to market with confidence.