The death of the middle in food and drink

For years, the food and drink market has been described as ‘hourglassing’. The middle is thinning, while the value and premium ends grow stronger. In today’s inflationary environment, that trend has become even more pronounced.

Where are consumers spending and saving?

Consumers are increasingly making deliberate choices about where they save and where they spend. On one side, value retailers and private label products continue to gain ground. Discounters like Aldi and Lidl have reshaped expectations around price and quality. Their private label offerings are no longer seen as compromises. In many categories, they’re considered credible alternatives to branded products.

At the same time, premium products are thriving. Consumers may be tightening their overall budgets, but they’re still willing to pay more for items that feel special. Artisan cheese, craft chocolate, speciality coffee and small-batch spirits continue to grow because they deliver something beyond basic sustenance.

The mid-tier squeeze

That leaves the mid-tier under the most pressure. These brands (offering slightly better quality than value products but without a strong premium proposition) are finding themselves squeezed hardest. Their challenge is that they often struggle to articulate a clear, compelling reason for shoppers to choose them.

If a consumer is looking to save money, the cheaper option is obvious. If they want something indulgent or distinctive, the premium option delivers a stronger experience. The middle too often ends up feeling like a compromise.

Why should someone pick you?

This dynamic is forcing brands to rethink their positioning. Some are leaning harder into value, optimising pack formats, promotions and efficiency to compete more directly with private label. Others are pushing into premium territory, investing in storytelling, ingredients and packaging that justify a higher price point.

But whichever direction a brand takes, the crucial question is the same: why should someone choose you?

Brands that can’t answer that question clearly risk drifting into irrelevance. Those that can articulate a strong role, whether as the smartest value choice or the most compelling premium experience, stand a much better chance of thriving.

In a polarising market, clarity beats compromise. At Trinity McQueen, we help brands find that clarity, prove their promise, and build the repeat that drives real growth. Get in touch with us to find out how we can help you.